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Forecasting COVID-19 hospitalizations using dynamic regression with ARIMA errors
Tez

Tez
Kaynak :
NDTLD Thesis
Yazar(lar) :
Ingrid Heed
Yıl :
2021
Forecasting COVID-19 hospitalizations using dynamic regression with ARIMA errors For more than a year, COVID- 19 has changed societies all over the world and put massive strains on its healthcare systems. - 19 two weeks ahead in Uppsala County. The best performing models are then utilized to forecast hospitalizations for weeks 19-22. COVID-19
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For more than a year, COVID-19 has changed societies all over the world and put massive strains on its healthcare systems. In an attempt to aid in prioritizing medical resources, this thesis uses dynamic regression with ARIMA errors to forecast the number of hospitalizations related to COVID-19 two weeks ahead in Uppsala County. For this purpose, 100 models are created and their ability to forecast hospitalizations two weeks ahead for weeks 15-17 of 2021 for the different municipalities in Uppsala County is evaluated using root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The best performing models are then utilized to forecast hospitalizations for weeks 19-22. The results show that the models perform well during periods of increasing numbers of hospitalizations during early 2021, while they perform less well during the last weeks of May 2021 where hospitalizations numbers have been falling dramatically. This recent decrease in forecasting performance is believed to be caused by an increase in vaccination coverage, which is not accounted for in the models.
Anahtar Kelimeler : forecasting, COVID-19, dynamic regression, Probability Theory and Statistics, Sannolikhetsteori och statistik
Sınıflandırma :
2
Impact of COVID-19 Lockdown on Global Economy
e-Kitap

e-Kitap
Open Access
Kaynak :
Internet Archive Books
Dergi:
Internet Archive
Yayıncı:
Internet Archive
Yazar(lar) :
Sumit Kushwaha
Yıl :
2020
Impact of COVID-19 Lockdown on Global Economy This paper shows the analysis on the impact of COVID- 19 Lockdown on Global. According to World Health Organization (WHO), there have been 31,99,277 confirmed cases of COVID- 19, including 2,26,790 deaths till April 30th, 2020 globally Due to this global pandemic COVID- 19, the world economy may down approximately 1%till December, 2020.
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This paper shows the analysis on the impact of COVID-19 Lockdown on Global. According to World Health Organization (WHO), there have been 31,99,277 confirmed cases of COVID-19, including 2,26,790 deaths till April 30th, 2020 globally. Due to this global pandemic COVID-19, the world economy may down approximately 1%till December, 2020. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) has done some study on this which shows that the impact of COVID-19 on the global economy may be even more normal if limitations on people movement and economic activity increase.
Sınıflandırma :
3
Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission
Dergi Makalesi

Dergi Makalesi
Kaynak :
Ora Articles
Dergi:
ORA - Oxford University Research Archive
Yayıncı:
ORA - Oxford University Research Archive
Yazar(lar) :
Nouvellet P , Bhatia S , Cori A , Ainslie K , Baguelin M , Bhatt S , Boonyasiri A , Brazeau N , Cattarino L , Cooper L , Coupland H , Cucunuba Z , Cuomo-Dannenburg G , Dighe A , Djaafara B , Dorigatti I , Eales O , van Elsland S , Nascimento F , Fitzjohn R , Gaythorpe K , Geidelberg L , Green W , Hamlet A , Hauck K , Hinsley W , Imai N , Jeffrey B , Knock E , Laydon D , Lees J , Mangal T , Mellan T , Nedjati-Gilani G , Parag K , Pons-Salort M , Ragonnet-Cronin M , Riley S , Unwin HJT , Verity R , Vollmer M , Volz E , Walker P , Walters C , Wang H , Watson OJ , Whittaker C , Whittles L , Xi X , Ferguson NM , Donnelly CA
Yıl :
2021
Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission In response to the COVID- 19 pandemic, countries have sought to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission by restricting population movement through social distancing
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In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries have sought to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission by restricting population movement through social distancing interventions, thus reducing the number of contacts.
Mobility data represent an important proxy measure of social distancing, and here, we characterise the relationship between transmission and mobility for 52 countries around the world.
Transmission significantly decreased with the initial reduction in mobility in 73% of the countries analysed, but we found evidence of decoupling of transmission and mobility following the relaxation of strict control measures for 80% of countries. For the majority of countries, mobility explained a substantial proportion of the variation in transmissibility (median adjusted R-squared: 48%, interquartile range - IQR - across countries [27-77%]). Where a change in the relationship occurred, predictive ability decreased after the relaxation; from a median adjusted R-squared of 74% (IQR across countries [49-91%]) pre-relaxation, to a median adjusted R-squared of 30% (IQR across countries [12-48%]) post-relaxation.
In countries with a clear relationship between mobility and transmission both before and after strict control measures were relaxed, mobility was associated with lower transmission rates after control measures were relaxed indicating that the beneficial effects of ongoing social distancing behaviours were substantial.
Sınıflandırma :
4
Anticipating the Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Pandemic
Dergi Makalesi

Dergi Makalesi
Open Access
Kaynak :
Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Dergi:
Frontiers in Public Health
Yazar(lar) :
Taranjot Kaur , Sukanta Sarkar , Sourangsu Chowdhury , Sudipta Kumar Sinha , Mohit Kumar Jolly , Partha Sharathi Dutta
Yıl :
2020
Anticipating the Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Pandemic The COVID- 19 outbreak was first declared an international public health, and it was later deemed a pandemic. Here, we report an empirical test of this phenomena on the COVID- 19 datasets of nine countries, including India, China, and the United States. /or lockdown interventions implemented and (b) the fraction of a nation's population being affected by COVID- 19 at that time. COVID-19
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The COVID-19 outbreak was first declared an international public health, and it was later deemed a pandemic. In most countries, the COVID-19 incidence curve rises sharply over a short period of time, suggesting a transition from a disease-free (or low-burden disease) equilibrium state to a sustained infected (or high-burden disease) state. Such a transition is often known to exhibit characteristics of “critical slowing down.” Critical slowing down can be, in general, successfully detected using many statistical measures, such as variance, lag-1 autocorrelation, density ratio, and skewness. Here, we report an empirical test of this phenomena on the COVID-19 datasets of nine countries, including India, China, and the United States. For most of the datasets, increases in variance and autocorrelation predict the onset of a critical transition. Our analysis suggests two key features in predicting the COVID-19 incidence curve for a specific country: (a) the timing of strict social distancing and/or lockdown interventions implemented and (b) the fraction of a nation's population being affected by COVID-19 at that time. Furthermore, using satellite data of nitrogen dioxide as an indicator of lockdown efficacy, we found that countries where lockdown was implemented early and firmly have been successful in reducing COVID-19 spread. These results are essential for designing effective strategies to control the spread/resurgence of infectious pandemics.
DOI : 10.3389/fpubh.2020.569669
Anahtar Kelimeler : COVID-19, critical transitions, indicators of critical slowing down, social distancing policies, non-pharmaceutical interventions
ISSN: 2296-2565
Cilt: 8
Sınıflandırma :
5
The Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak on the Household Economy
Dergi Makalesi

Dergi Makalesi
Open Access
Kaynak :
Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Dergi:
Journal of Research in Medical and Dental Science
Yazar(lar) :
Bilal Celik , Kemal Ozden , Senol Dane
Yıl :
2020
The Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak on the Household Economy Introduction: COVID- 19 pandemic outbreak increased panic, anxiety, and depression level in both young and adult people and changed food consumption preferences In the present study, the effects of COVID- 19 pandemic outbreak and lockdown on the household economy (income and expenses) were investigated. The survey was conducted during the lockdown period of COVID- 19 when all participants were self-isolated at their residences. covid-19
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Introduction: COVID-19 pandemic outbreak increased panic, anxiety, and depression level in both young and adult people and changed food consumption preferences. In the present study, the effects of COVID-19 pandemic outbreak and lockdown on the household economy (income and expenses) were investigated. Method: This research consisted of four hundred and ninety-three participants/families. All of them accepted voluntarily to take part in this study (364 men and 129 women). An online survey was generated to get the household economy parameters, including income, total expenditure, and other expenses during COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. The survey was conducted during the lockdown period of COVID-19 when all participants were self-isolated at their residences. Results: There was a significant decrease in family incomes and a significant increase in family expenditures during COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. Although there were substantial increases in nutrition, cleaning, communication, water-electric-gas expenses, there were outstanding decreases in cultural and transportation expenses. Conclusion: The results of the present study display that COVID-19 pandemic outbreak has a powerful impact on incomes and expenses of families from various countries. The long-period lockdown can cause several expected and unexpected adverse results such as health problems and worsening economic conditions of people. Local highway and air transportation might be permitted, and higher education institutions may be recommenced by providing basic precautions such as face mask and social distance rules.
Anahtar Kelimeler : coronavirus, covid-19, household economy, incomes, expenses
Cilt: 8
Sayı: 4
Sayfa: 51 - 56
Sınıflandırma :
6
The COVID-19: macroeconomics scenarii and role of containment in Morocco
Dergi Makalesi

Dergi Makalesi
Open Access
Kaynak :
Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Dergi:
One Health
Yazar(lar) :
Zakaria Firano , Filali Adib Fatine
Yıl :
2020
The COVID-19: macroeconomics scenarii and role of containment in Morocco
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In the present paper we are interested in the epidemiological evolution of Covid19 in Morocco and we try to simulate the possible trajectories of the contagion. The objective of this research is to model the economic consequences of the epidemic and also to highlight the importance of the containment policy in facilitating economic recovery in Morocco. The results obtained using a combination of Ramsey's model and the epidemiological propagation model affirm that the choice of the containment policy made it possible to reduce the negative repercussions of the pandemic on Morocco, despite the economic consequences of the latter. The comparisons made between the two situations confirm that the economic repercussions remain moderate and Morocco will be able to face this disaster with even stricter or even more intelligent containment.
Anahtar Kelimeler : COVID19, Economic conditions, Ramsey, Contagion
ISSN: 2352-7714
Cilt: 10
Sayfa: 100152
Sınıflandırma :
7
The effects of school closures due to Covid-19 on parental labor supply : evidence from the United States
Tez

Tez
Kaynak :
NDTLD Thesis
Yazar(lar) :
Emma Genlott
Yıl :
2021
The effects of school closures due to Covid-19 on parental labor supply : evidence from the United States The spread of Covid- 19 led to social restrictions of various kinds, of which closing schools was one. covid-19
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The spread of Covid-19 led to social restrictions of various kinds, of which closing schools was one. This paper studies the effect of school closures on parental labor supply. To this end, I use repeated cross-sectional data on households at the monthly level from the US Current Population Survey (CPS), and employ a difference-in-differences methodology where I compare the labor market outcomes for parents to school-aged children that require supervision with parents to slightly older children, before and after March 2020. The results show that there is a significant reduction in the labor supply of parents to younger children as a result of school closures, and that the effects are larger for mothers than for fathers.
Anahtar Kelimeler : childcare, covid-19, school closures, parental labor supply, United States, Economics, Nationalekonomi
Sınıflandırma :
8
How and When to End the COVID-19 Lockdown: An Optimization Approach
Dergi Makalesi

Dergi Makalesi
Open Access
Kaynak :
Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Dergi:
Frontiers in Public Health
Yazar(lar) :
Thomas Rawson , Tom Brewer , Dessislava Veltcheva , Chris Huntingford , Michael B. Bonsall
Yıl :
2020
How and When to End the COVID-19 Lockdown: An Optimization Approach COVID-19
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Countries around the world are in a state of lockdown to help limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2. However, as the number of new daily confirmed cases begins to decrease, governments must decide how to release their populations from quarantine as efficiently as possible without overwhelming their health services. We applied an optimal control framework to an adapted Susceptible-Exposure-Infection-Recovery (SEIR) model framework to investigate the efficacy of two potential lockdown release strategies, focusing on the UK population as a test case. To limit recurrent spread, we find that ending quarantine for the entire population simultaneously is a high-risk strategy, and that a gradual re-integration approach would be more reliable. Furthermore, to increase the number of people that can be first released, lockdown should not be ended until the number of new daily confirmed cases reaches a sufficiently low threshold. We model a gradual release strategy by allowing different fractions of those in lockdown to re-enter the working non-quarantined population. Mathematical optimization methods, combined with our adapted SEIR model, determine how to maximize those working while preventing the health service from being overwhelmed. The optimal strategy is broadly found to be to release approximately half the population 2–4 weeks from the end of an initial infection peak, then wait another 3–4 months to allow for a second peak before releasing everyone else. We also modeled an “on-off” strategy, of releasing everyone, but re-establishing lockdown if infections become too high. We conclude that the worst-case scenario of a gradual release is more manageable than the worst-case scenario of an on-off strategy, and caution against lockdown-release strategies based on a threshold-dependent on-off mechanism. The two quantities most critical in determining the optimal solution are transmission rate and the recovery rate, where the latter is defined as the fraction of infected people in any given day that then become classed as recovered. We suggest that the accurate identification of these values is of particular importance to the ongoing monitoring of the pandemic.
DOI : 10.3389/fpubh.2020.00262
Anahtar Kelimeler : optimization, quarantine, epidemiology, mathematical model, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2
ISSN: 2296-2565
Cilt: 8
Sınıflandırma :
9
Epidemiology of Coronavirus COVID-19: Forecasting the Future Incidence in Different Countries
Dergi Makalesi

Dergi Makalesi
Open Access
Kaynak 1:
Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Kaynak 2:
MDPI
Dergi:
Healthcare
Yazar(lar) :
Johannes Stübinger , Lucas Schneider
Yıl :
2020
Epidemiology of Coronavirus COVID-19: Forecasting the Future Incidence in Different Countries This paper forecasts the future spread of COVID- 19 by exploiting the identified lead-lag effects between different countries. COVID-19
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This paper forecasts the future spread of COVID-19 by exploiting the identified lead-lag effects between different countries. Specifically, we first determine the past relation among nations with the aid of dynamic time warping. This procedure allows an elastic adjustment of the time axis to find similar but phase-shifted sequences. Afterwards, the established framework utilizes information about the leading country to predict the Coronavirus spread of the following nation. The presented methodology is applied to confirmed Coronavirus cases from 1 January 2020 to 28 March 2020. Our results show that China leads all other countries in the range of 29 days for South Korea and 44 days for the United States. Finally, we predict a future collapse of the healthcare systems of the United Kingdom and Switzerland in case of our explosion scenario.
DOI : 10.3390/healthcare8020099
Anahtar Kelimeler : Coronavirus, COVID-19, epidemiology, incidence, dynamic time warping, lead-lag effects
ISSN: 2227-9032
Cilt: 8
Sayı: 99
Sayfa: 99
Sınıflandırma :
10
Modeling, state estimation, and optimal control for the US COVID-19 outbreak
Dergi Makalesi

Dergi Makalesi
Open Access
Kaynak :
Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Dergi:
Scientific Reports
Yazar(lar) :
Calvin Tsay , Fernando Lejarza , Mark A. Stadtherr , Michael Baldea
Yıl :
2020
Modeling, state estimation, and optimal control for the US COVID-19 outbreak Abstract The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and resulting COVID- 19 disease have had an unprecedented spread and continue to cause an increasing number of In this work, we introduce a novel optimization-based decision-making framework for managing the COVID- 19 outbreak in the US.
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Abstract The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and resulting COVID-19 disease have had an unprecedented spread and continue to cause an increasing number of fatalities worldwide. While vaccines are still under development, social distancing, extensive testing, and quarantining of confirmed infected subjects remain the most effective measures to contain the pandemic. These measures carry a significant socioeconomic cost. In this work, we introduce a novel optimization-based decision-making framework for managing the COVID-19 outbreak in the US. This includes modeling the dynamics of affected populations, estimating the model parameters and hidden states from data, and an optimal control strategy for sequencing social distancing and testing events such that the number of infections is minimized. The analysis of our extensive computational efforts reveals that social distancing and quarantining are most effective when implemented early, with quarantining of confirmed infected subjects having a much higher impact. Further, we find that “on-off” policies alternating between strict social distancing and relaxing such restrictions can be effective at “flattening” the curve while likely minimizing social and economic cost.
DOI : 10.1038/s41598-020-67459-8
ISSN: 2045-2322
Cilt: 10
Sayı: 1
Sayfa: 1 - 12
Sınıflandırma :
11
Time, space and social interactions: exit mechanisms for the Covid-19 epidemics
Dergi Makalesi

Dergi Makalesi
Open Access
Kaynak :
Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Dergi:
Scientific Reports
Yazar(lar) :
Antonio Scala , Andrea Flori , Alessandro Spelta , Emanuele Brugnoli , Matteo Cinelli , Walter Quattrociocchi , Fabio Pammolli
Yıl :
2020
Time, space and social interactions: exit mechanisms for the Covid-19 epidemics Abstract We develop a minimalist compartmental model to study the impact of mobility restrictions in Italy during the Covid- 19 outbreak.
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Abstract We develop a minimalist compartmental model to study the impact of mobility restrictions in Italy during the Covid-19 outbreak. We show that, while an early lockdown shifts the contagion in time, beyond a critical value of lockdown strength the epidemic tends to restart after lifting the restrictions. We characterize the relative importance of different lockdown lifting schemes by accounting for two fundamental sources of heterogeneity, i.e. geography and demography. First, we consider Italian Regions as separate administrative entities, in which social interactions between age classes occur. We show that, due to the sparsity of the inter-Regional mobility matrix, once started, the epidemic spreading tends to develop independently across areas, justifying the adoption of mobility restrictions targeted to individual Regions or clusters of Regions. Second, we show that social contacts between members of different age classes play a fundamental role and that interventions which target local behaviours and take into account the age structure of the population can provide a significant contribution to mitigate the epidemic spreading. Our model aims to provide a general framework, and it highlights the relevance of some key parameters on non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain the contagion.
DOI : 10.1038/s41598-020-70631-9
ISSN: 2045-2322
Cilt: 10
Sayı: 1
Sayfa: 1 - 12
Sınıflandırma :
12
Who can go back to work when the COVID-19 pandemic remits?
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Dergi Makalesi
Open Access
Kaynak :
Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Dergi:
PLoS ONE
Yazar(lar) :
Luis Angel Hierro , David Cantarero , David Patiño , Daniel Rodríguez-Pérez de Arenaza
Yıl :
2020
Who can go back to work when the COVID-19 pandemic remits? We apply SSMD to Spain, based on affiliation to the Social Security system prior to the COVID- 19 pandemic, and conclude that 98.37% of the population could
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This paper seeks to determine which workers affected by lockdown measures can return to work when a government decides to apply lockdown exit strategies. This system, which we call Sequential Selective Multidimensional Decision (SSMD), involves deciding sequentially, by geographical areas, sectors of activity, age groups and immunity, which workers can return to work at a given time according to the epidemiological criteria of the country as well as that of a group of reference countries, used as a benchmark, that have suffered a lower level of lockdown de-escalation strategies. We apply SSMD to Spain, based on affiliation to the Social Security system prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, and conclude that 98.37% of the population could be affected. The proposed system makes it possible to accurately identify the target population for serological IgG antibody tests in the work field, as well as those affected by special income replacement measures due to lockdown being maintained over a longer period.
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pone.0238299
ISSN: 1932-6203
Cilt: 15
Sayı: 8
Sayfa: e0238299
Sınıflandırma :
13
Americans' Food Spending Patterns Explain Devastating Impact of COVID-19 Lockdowns on Agriculture
Dergi Makalesi

Dergi Makalesi
Open Access
Kaynak :
Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Dergi:
Journal of Agriculture, Food Systems, and Community Development
Yazar(lar) :
Stephan Goetz , Claudia Schmidt , Lisa Chase , Jane Kolodinsky
Yıl :
2020
Americans' Food Spending Patterns Explain Devastating Impact of COVID-19 Lockdowns on Agriculture Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service’s Food Expenditures by Outlet data provide insight as to why the lockdowns related to COVID- 19 have restaurants, $337.8bn at full-service restaurants and $340.2bn at limited-service restaurants.[2] The social distancing and stay-at-home orders related to the COVID - 19 pandemic have forced many restaurants to close and those remaining in business to switch to pick-up or delivery only options. COVID-19
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First paragraph: The U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service’s Food Expenditures by Outlet data provide insight as to why the lockdowns related to COVID-19 have been so devastating for U.S. farmers. In 2018, American consumers bought a total of $628bn[1] worth of food, of which $460bn was spent at grocery stores and $168bn at warehouse clubs and supercenters (see Figure 1 and Table 1). But expenditures on food away from home exceeded that amount: $680bn was spent at restaurants, $337.8bn at full-service restaurants and $340.2bn at limited-service restaurants.[2] The social distancing and stay-at-home orders related to the COVID-19 pandemic have forced many restaurants to close and those remaining in business to switch to pick-up or delivery only options. Because restaurant supply chains are highly specialized and time sensitive, reallocation of these supply chains has not come quickly enough to accommodate the shifts in consumption toward at-home eating patterns. . . . [1] All amounts are in U.S. dollars. [2] Not all of this represents the value of agricultural products; a large share of this is value-added in the form of rents and wages.
DOI : 10.5304/jafscd.2020.093.033
Anahtar Kelimeler : COVID-19, Pandemic, Food Spending, Consumer Purchasing, Agriculture, Direct-to-Consumer Sales
Cilt: 9
Sayı: 3
Sınıflandırma :
14
A Framework for a European Economic Recovery After COVID-19
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Dergi Makalesi
Open Access
Kaynak :
Springer Link
Dergi:
Intereconomics
Yayıncı:
Springer Link
Yazar(lar) :
Julia Anderson , Simone Tagliapietra , Guntram B. Wolff
Konu :
conomic Policy, European Integration, Social Policy, Labor Economics
Yıl :
2020
A Framework for a European Economic Recovery After COVID-19 The success of support measures as COVID- 19 lockdowns are relaxed depends on the type of recovery the EU wants to achieve.
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The success of support measures as COVID-19 lockdowns are relaxed depends on the type of recovery the EU wants to achieve.
DOI : 10.1007/s10272-020-0904-2
ISSN: 1613-964X
Cilt: 55
Sayı: 4
Sayfa: 209-215
Sınıflandırma :
15
Unemployment in Switzerland in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic: an intertemporal perspective
Dergi Makalesi

Dergi Makalesi
Open Access
Kaynak :
Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Dergi:
Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics
Yazar(lar) :
George Sheldon
Yıl :
2020
Unemployment in Switzerland in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic: an intertemporal perspective Abstract The following contribution compares the unemployment situation arising from the lockdown induced by the Covid- 19 pandemic with previous employment Covid-19
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Abstract The following contribution compares the unemployment situation arising from the lockdown induced by the Covid-19 pandemic with previous employment crises in Switzerland. In addition, it forecasts the future trajectory of unemployment based on ongoing changes in hazard rates. From a historical perspective, current unemployment as well as that expected by the federal authorities in the medium term do not seem that dramatic. Current hazard rates present a different picture, however, predicting increases in both the unemployment rate and long-term unemployment to record levels.
DOI : 10.1186/s41937-020-00058-6
Anahtar Kelimeler : Unemployment, Incidence, Duration, Covid-19, Switzerland
ISSN: 2235-6282
Cilt: 156
Sayı: 1
Sayfa: 1 - 9
Sınıflandırma :
16
Democracy, culture, and contagion: political regimes and countries responsiveness to Covid-19
Dergi Makalesi

Dergi Makalesi
Open Access
Kaynak :
Ora Articles
Dergi:
ORA - Oxford University Research Archive
Yayıncı:
ORA - Oxford University Research Archive
Yazar(lar) :
Frey CB , Chen C , Presidente G
Yıl :
2020
Democracy, culture, and contagion: political regimes and countries responsiveness to Covid-19 A widely held belief is that autocratic governments have been more effective in reducing the movement of people to curb the spread of Covid- 19. Using the Oxford COVID- 19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), and a real-time dataset with daily information on travel and movement across 111 countries We conclude that, in terms of reducing mobility, collectivist and democratic countries have implemented relatively effective responses to Covid- 19. covid-19
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A widely held belief is that autocratic governments have been more effective in reducing the movement of people to curb the spread of Covid-19. Using the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), and a real-time dataset with daily information on travel and movement across 111 countries, we find that autocratic regimes imposed more stringent lockdowns and relied more on contact tracing. However, we find no evidence that autocratic governments were more effective in reducing travel, and evidence to the contrary: countries with democratically accountable governments introduced less stringent lockdowns but were approximately 20% more effective in reducing geographic mobility at the same level of policy stringency. In addition, building on a large literature on cross-cultural psychology, we show that for the same policy stringency, countries with more obedient and collectivist cultural traits experienced larger declines in geographic mobility relative to their more individualistic counterparts. We conclude that, in terms of reducing mobility, collectivist and democratic countries have implemented relatively effective responses to Covid-19.
Anahtar Kelimeler : policy, democracy, covid-19, culture, state capacity
Sınıflandırma :
17
Early Signs Indicate That COVID-19 Is Exacerbating Gender Inequality in the Labor Force
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Dergi Makalesi
Open Access
Kaynak :
Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Dergi:
Socius
Yazar(lar) :
Liana Christin Landivar , Leah Ruppanner , William J. Scarborough , Caitlyn Collins
Yıl :
2020
Early Signs Indicate That COVID-19 Is Exacerbating Gender Inequality in the Labor Force In this data visualization, the authors examine how the coronavirus disease 2019 ( COVID- 19) crisis in the United States has affected labor force participation The findings illustrate that women, particularly mothers, have employment disproportionately affected by COVID- 19. These patterns suggest that the COVID- 19 crisis is already worsening existing gender inequality, with long-term implications for women’s employment.
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In this data visualization, the authors examine how the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis in the United States has affected labor force participation, unemployment, and work hours across gender and parental status. Using data from the Current Population Survey, the authors compare estimates between February and April 2020 to examine the period of time before the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States to the height of the first wave, when stay-at-home orders were issued across the country. The findings illustrate that women, particularly mothers, have employment disproportionately affected by COVID-19. Mothers are more likely than fathers to exit the labor force and become unemployed. Among heterosexual married couples of which both partners work in telecommuting-capable occupations, mothers have scaled back their work hours to a far greater extent than fathers. These patterns suggest that the COVID-19 crisis is already worsening existing gender inequality, with long-term implications for women’s employment.
DOI : 10.1177/2378023120947997
ISSN: 2378-0231
Cilt: 6
Sınıflandırma :
18
Survival-Convolution Models for Predicting COVID-19 Cases and Assessing Effects of Mitigation Strategies
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Dergi Makalesi
Open Access
Kaynak :
Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Dergi:
Frontiers in Public Health
Yazar(lar) :
Qinxia Wang , Shanghong Xie , Yuanjia Wang , Donglin Zeng
Yıl :
2020
Survival-Convolution Models for Predicting COVID-19 Cases and Assessing Effects of Mitigation Strategies Countries around the globe have implemented unprecedented measures to mitigate the coronavirus disease 2019 ( COVID- 19) pandemic. We aim to predict the COVID- 19 disease course and compare the effectiveness of mitigation measures across countries to inform policy decision making using If the trend continues after May 1, COVID- 19 may be controlled by late July. COVID-19
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Countries around the globe have implemented unprecedented measures to mitigate the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We aim to predict the COVID-19 disease course and compare the effectiveness of mitigation measures across countries to inform policy decision making using a robust and parsimonious survival-convolution model. We account for transmission during a pre-symptomatic incubation period and use a time-varying effective reproduction number (Rt) to reflect the temporal trend of transmission and change in response to a public health intervention. We estimate the intervention effect on reducing the transmission rate using a natural experiment design and quantify uncertainty by permutation. In China and South Korea, we predicted the entire disease epidemic using only early phase data (2–3 weeks after the outbreak). A fast rate of decline in Rt was observed, and adopting mitigation strategies early in the epidemic was effective in reducing the transmission rate in these two countries. The nationwide lockdown in Italy did not accelerate the speed at which the transmission rate decreases. In the United States, Rt significantly decreased during a 2-week period after the declaration of national emergency, but it declined at a much slower rate afterwards. If the trend continues after May 1, COVID-19 may be controlled by late July. However, a loss of temporal effect (e.g., due to relaxing mitigation measures after May 1) could lead to a long delay in controlling the epidemic (mid-November with fewer than 100 daily cases) and a total of more than 2 million cases.
DOI : 10.3389/fpubh.2020.00325
Anahtar Kelimeler : COVID-19, survival-convolution model, time-varying effective reproduction number, mitigation measures, prediction
ISSN: 2296-2565
Cilt: 8
Sınıflandırma :
19
Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures
Dergi Makalesi

Dergi Makalesi
Open Access
Kaynak :
Springer Nature
Dergi:
Nature Human Behaviour
Yayıncı:
Springer Nature
Yazar(lar) :
Dabo Guan , Daoping Wang , Stephane Hallegatte , Steven J. Davis , Jingwen Huo , Shuping Li , Yangchun Bai , Tianyang Lei , Qianyu Xue , Du2019Maris Coffman , Danyang Cheng , Peipei Chen , Xi Liang , Bing Xu , Xiaosheng Lu , Shouyang Wang , Klaus Hubacek , Peng Gong
Konu :
Economics, Environmental social sciences
Yıl :
2020
Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures Countries have sought to stop the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 ( COVID- 19) by severely restricting travel and in-person commercial activities. Regardless of the strategy, the complexity of global supply chains will magnify losses beyond the direct effects of COVID- 19. Guan et al. analyse the impacts of COVID- 19 restrictions on global supply chains.
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Countries have sought to stop the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by severely restricting travel and in-person commercial activities. Here, we analyse the supply-chain effects of a set of idealized lockdown scenarios, using the latest global trade modelling framework. We find that supply-chain losses that are related to initial COVID-19 lockdowns are largely dependent on the number of countries imposing restrictions and that losses are more sensitive to the duration of a lockdown than its strictness. However, a longer containment that can eradicate the disease imposes a smaller loss than shorter ones. Earlier, stricter and shorter lockdowns can minimize overall losses. A ‘go-slow’ approach to lifting restrictions may reduce overall damages if it avoids the need for further lockdowns. Regardless of the strategy, the complexity of global supply chains will magnify losses beyond the direct effects of COVID-19. Thus, pandemic control is a public good that requires collective efforts and support to lower-capacity countries. Guan et al. analyse the impacts of COVID-19 restrictions on global supply chains. Earlier, stricter and shorter lockdowns can minimize overall losses. A ‘go-slow’ approach to lifting restrictions may reduce overall damages if it avoids the need for further lockdowns.
DOI : 10.1038/s41562-020-0896-8
ISSN: 2397-3374
Cilt: 4
Sayı: 6
Sayfa: 577-587
Sınıflandırma :
20
Early evidence of the impacts of COVID-19 on minority unemployment
Dergi Makalesi

Dergi Makalesi
Kaynak :
Science Direct
Dergi:
Journal of Public Economics
Yayıncı:
Elsevier
Yazar(lar) :
Kenneth A. Couch , Robert W. Fairlie , Huanan Xu
Yıl :
2020
Early evidence of the impacts of COVID-19 on minority unemployment
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DOI : 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104287
ISSN: 0047-2727
Cilt: 192
Sayfa: 104287
Sınıflandırma :
21
COVID-19 Lockdown Measures on Least Developing Economies in Africa-a case of Malawi Economy
Dergi Makalesi

Dergi Makalesi
Open Access
Kaynak :
Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Dergi:
Technium Social Sciences Journal
Yazar(lar) :
George N. Chidimbah Munthali , Wu Xuelian
Yıl :
2020
COVID-19 Lockdown Measures on Least Developing Economies in Africa-a case of Malawi Economy The outbreak of COVID- 19 pandemic has caused the entire world at standstill affecting all the sectors of economies in the whole world.
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Kaydet
The outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic has caused the entire world at standstill affecting all the sectors of economies in the whole world. In order to reduce the spread of the cases and the mortality rate of this pandemics many economies have implemented a lot of social distancing measurers with the aim of separating people direct and indirect contacts as the Virus can be transferred through physical contact and is also an airborne, these isolations measures have proved to be effective in many countries. One of the most measures that the developed and developing economies are using is partial or full lockdown, despite being effective way of reducing the impact of the Virus, lockdown measures has also its own cost that the economies are to bier especially when it’s a total or full countrywide lockdown which policy makers must look into too. The approaches of lockdowns and attitudes of people towards lockdowns has been seen differencing in many countries depending on the political system of the government which is in that jurisdiction economic status of the country. This perspective recommends that Countries like Malawi and any other when implementing these lockdowns measures the authorities should consider the political system, costs and other the measures to carter for helping the people like proving stimulus package in order to have a successfully and effective lockdown which is highly recommended to be an effective way of combating the Virus.
Anahtar Kelimeler : the corresponding aurther is the second one
ISSN: 2668-7798
Cilt: 7
Sayfa: 295 - 301
Sınıflandırma :
22
Impact of lockdown on COVID-19 epidemic in Île-de-France and possible exit strategies
Dergi Makalesi

Dergi Makalesi
Open Access
Kaynak :
Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Dergi:
BMC Medicine
Yazar(lar) :
Laura Di Domenico , Giulia Pullano , Chiara E. Sabbatini , Pierre-Yves Boëlle , Vittoria Colizza
Yıl :
2020
Impact of lockdown on COVID-19 epidemic in Île-de-France and possible exit strategies Estimating the expected impact of lockdown and exit strategies is critical to inform decision makers on the management of the COVID- 19 health crisis. Conclusions As France experiences the first wave of COVID- 19 pandemic in lockdown, intensive forms of social distancing are required in the upcoming months COVID-19
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Abstract Background More than half of the global population is under strict forms of social distancing. Estimating the expected impact of lockdown and exit strategies is critical to inform decision makers on the management of the COVID-19 health crisis. Methods We use a stochastic age-structured transmission model integrating data on age profile and social contacts in Île-de-France to (i) assess the epidemic in the region, (ii) evaluate the impact of lockdown, and (iii) propose possible exit strategies and estimate their effectiveness. The model is calibrated to hospital admission data before lockdown. Interventions are modeled by reconstructing the associated changes in the contact matrices and informed by mobility reductions during lockdown evaluated from mobile phone data. Different types and durations of social distancing are simulated, including progressive and targeted strategies, with large-scale testing. Results We estimate the reproductive number at 3.18 [3.09, 3.24] (95% confidence interval) prior to lockdown and at 0.68 [0.66, 0.69] during lockdown, thanks to an 81% reduction of the average number of contacts. Model predictions capture the disease dynamics during lockdown, showing the epidemic curve reaching ICU system capacity, largely strengthened during the emergency, and slowly decreasing. Results suggest that physical contacts outside households were largely avoided during lockdown. Lifting the lockdown with no exit strategy would lead to a second wave overwhelming the healthcare system, if conditions return to normal. Extensive case finding and isolation are required for social distancing strategies to gradually relax lockdown constraints. Conclusions As France experiences the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in lockdown, intensive forms of social distancing are required in the upcoming months due to the currently low population immunity. Extensive case finding and isolation would allow the partial release of the socio-economic pressure caused by extreme measures, while avoiding healthcare demand exceeding capacity. Response planning needs to urgently prioritize the logistics and capacity for these interventions.
DOI : 10.1186/s12916-020-01698-4
Anahtar Kelimeler : COVID-19, Mathematical modeling, Lockdown, Exit strategies, Non-pharmaceutical interventions, Social distancing
ISSN: 1741-7015
Cilt: 18
Sayı: 1
Sayfa: 1 - 13
Sınıflandırma :
Çevre %20
Kirlilik %100
23
Who loses income during the COVID-19 outbreak? Evidence from China
Dergi Makalesi

Dergi Makalesi
Kaynak :
Science Direct
Dergi:
Research in Social Stratification and Mobility
Yayıncı:
Elsevier
Yazar(lar) :
Yue Qian , Wen Fan
Yıl :
2020
Who loses income during the COVID-19 outbreak? Evidence from China
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DOI : 10.1016/j.rssm.2020.100522
ISSN: 0276-5624
Cilt: 68
Sayfa: 100522
Sınıflandırma :
24
An Optimal Lockdown Relaxation Strategy for Minimizing the Economic Effects of COVID-19 Outbreak
Dergi Makalesi

Dergi Makalesi
Open Access
Kaynak :
Hindawi Limited
Dergi:
International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences
Yayıncı:
Hindawi
Yazar(lar) :
A. C. Mahasinghe , Er , K. K. W. H. i , S. S. N. Perera
Yıl :
2021
An Optimal Lockdown Relaxation Strategy for Minimizing the Economic Effects of COVID-19 Outbreak In order to recover the damage to the economy by the ongoing COVID- 19 pandemic, many countries consider the transition from strict lockdowns to partial In this work, we propose an optimal lockdown relaxation strategy, which is aimed at minimizing the damage to the economy, while confining the COVID- 19 We generate approximate solutions to the problem, whereas our experimentation is based on the data on the COVID- 19 outbreak in Sri Lanka.
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In order to recover the damage to the economy by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, many countries consider the transition from strict lockdowns to partial lockdowns through relaxation of preventive measures. In this work, we propose an optimal lockdown relaxation strategy, which is aimed at minimizing the damage to the economy, while confining the COVID-19 incidence to a level endurable by the available healthcare facilities in the country. In order to capture the transmission dynamics, we adopt the compartment models and develop the relevant optimization model, which turns out to be nonlinear. We generate approximate solutions to the problem, whereas our experimentation is based on the data on the COVID-19 outbreak in Sri Lanka.
DOI : https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/6684271
Cilt: 2021
ISSN: 0161-1712
Sınıflandırma :
25
The system dynamic model of the labor migrant policy in economic growth affected by COVID-19
Dergi Makalesi

Dergi Makalesi
Open Access
Kaynak :
Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Dergi:
Global Journal of Environmental Science and Management
Yazar(lar) :
S. Kozlovskyi , D. Bilenko , M. Kuzheliev , R. Lavrov , V. Kozlovskyi , H. Mazur , A. Taranych
Yıl :
2020
The system dynamic model of the labor migrant policy in economic growth affected by COVID-19 At the end of 2019, the new virus called Coronavirus Disease ( Covid- 19) spread widely from China all over the world. If migrant workers leave the host country, it reduces the Covid- 19 spread. It examined through hypotheses of different scenarios of labor migrants policy impact on the host country economic growth in Covid- 19 pandemic. covid-19 (coronavirus) pandemic
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Tam Metin
Kaydet
At the end of 2019, the new virus called Coronavirus Disease (Covid-19) spread widely from China all over the world. In March 2020 the World Health Organization declared a new virus outbreak as “a global pandemic”, and recommended social distancing and quarantine. Most countries in Europe have been quarantined. The social aspect of this issue is complicated by the fact that Europe nowadays hosts 82 million international migrants. If migrant workers leave the host country, it reduces the Covid-19 spread. Nevertheless, if migrant workers do not return, it will worsen the situation with the economic crisis. The subject of the study is the instrumental and mathematical aspects of impact simulation of labor migrants’ policy on the economic growth of the host country affected by COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of the work is to develop the system dynamics model for assessing labor migrants’ policy impact on the economic growth of the host country during COVID-19 pandemic. It examined through hypotheses of different scenarios of labor migrants policy impact on the host country economic growth in Covid-19 pandemic. The proposed model combines epidemiological and the economic growth models and relies upon real statistical data. The analysis was carried out in four European countries. The results of the study enabled to state that without migrant workers the gross domestic product may fall to 43% in Italy, 45% in Netherlands, 37% in Spain and 200% in Switzerland in 2020.
DOI : 10.22034/GJESM.2019.06.SI.09
Anahtar Kelimeler : covid-19 (coronavirus) pandemic, epidemiological model, economic growth, gross domestic product, migrant worker, system dynamics model
Cilt: 6
Sayı: Special (Covid-19)
Sayfa: 95 - 106
Sınıflandırma :
26
The impact of government measures and human mobility trend on COVID-19 related deaths in the UK
Dergi Makalesi

Dergi Makalesi
Open Access
Kaynak :
Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Dergi:
Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives
Yazar(lar) :
Georgios M. Hadjidemetriou , Manu Sasidharan , Georgia Kouyialis , Ajith K. Parlikad
Yıl :
2020
The impact of government measures and human mobility trend on COVID-19 related deaths in the UK The COVID- 19 global pandemic has rapidly expanded, with the UK being one of the countries with the highest number of cases and deaths in proportion to - 19 outcomes. The study shows that human-mobility reduction had a significant impact on reducing COVID- 19-related deaths, thus providing crucial evidence in support COVID-19
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The COVID-19 global pandemic has rapidly expanded, with the UK being one of the countries with the highest number of cases and deaths in proportion to its population. Major clinical and human behavioural measures have been taken by the UK government to control the spread of the pandemic and to support the health system. It remains unclear how exactly human mobility restrictions have affected the virus spread in the UK. This research uses driving, walking and transit real-time data to investigate the impact of government control measures on human mobility reduction, as well as the connection between trends in human-mobility and severe COVID-19 outcomes. Human mobility was observed to gradually decrease as the government was announcing more measures and it stabilized at a scale of around 80% after a lockdown was imposed. The study shows that human-mobility reduction had a significant impact on reducing COVID-19-related deaths, thus providing crucial evidence in support of such government measures.
Anahtar Kelimeler : COVID-19, Pandemic, Government restrictions, Travel behaviour, Logistic growth model
ISSN: 2590-1982
Cilt: 6
Sayfa: 100167
Sınıflandırma :
27
Japanese citizens' behavioral changes and preparedness against COVID-19: An online survey during the early phase of the pandemic.
Dergi Makalesi

Dergi Makalesi
Open Access
Kaynak :
Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Dergi:
PLoS ONE
Yazar(lar) :
Kaori Muto , Isamu Yamamoto , Miwako Nagasu , Mikihito Tanaka , Koji Wada
Yıl :
2020
Japanese citizens' behavioral changes and preparedness against COVID-19: An online survey during the early phase of the pandemic. The Japanese government instituted countermeasures against COVID- 19, a pneumonia caused by the new coronavirus, in January 2020.
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The Japanese government instituted countermeasures against COVID-19, a pneumonia caused by the new coronavirus, in January 2020. Seeking "people's behavioral changes," in which the government called on the public to take precautionary measures or exercise self-restraint, was one of the important strategies. The purpose of this study is to investigate how and from when Japanese citizens have changed their precautionary behavior under circumstances in which the government has only requested their cooperation. This study uses micro data from a cross-sectional survey conducted on an online platform of an online research company, based on quota sampling that is representative of the Japanese population. By the end of March 2020, a total of 11,342 respondents, aged from 20 to 64 years, were recruited. About 85 percent reported practising the social distancing measures recommended by the government including more females than males and more older than younger participants. Frequent handwashing is conducted by 86 percent of all participants, 92 percent of female, and 87.9 percent of over-40 participants. The most important event influencing these precautionary actions was the infection aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which occurred in early February 2020 (23 percent). Information from the central and local governments, received by 60 percent of the participants, was deemed trustworthy by 50 percent. However, the results also showed that about 20 percent of the participants were reluctant to implement proper prevention measures. The statistical analysis indicated that the typical characteristics of those people were male, younger (under 30 years old), unmarried, from lower-income households, a drinking or smoking habit, and a higher extraversion score. To prevent the spread of infection in Japan, it is imperative to address these individuals and encourage their behavioural changes using various means to reach and influence them.
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pone.0234292
ISSN: 1932-6203
Cilt: 15
Sayı: 6
Sayfa: e0234292
Sınıflandırma :
28
Timing matters: the impact of response measures on COVID-19-related hospitalization and death rates in Germany and Switzerland
Dergi Makalesi

Dergi Makalesi
Open Access
Kaynak :
Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Dergi:
Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics
Yazar(lar) :
Martin Huber , Henrika Langen
Yıl :
2020
Timing matters: the impact of response measures on COVID-19-related hospitalization and death rates in Germany and Switzerland Abstract We assess the impact of the timing of lockdown measures implemented in Germany and Switzerland on cumulative COVID- 19-related hospitalization COVID-19
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Abstract We assess the impact of the timing of lockdown measures implemented in Germany and Switzerland on cumulative COVID-19-related hospitalization and death rates. Our analysis exploits the fact that the epidemic was more advanced in some regions than in others when certain lockdown measures came into force, based on measuring health outcomes relative to the region-specific start of the epidemic and comparing outcomes across regions with earlier and later start dates. When estimating the effect of the relative timing of measures, we control for regional characteristics and initial epidemic trends by linear regression (Germany and Switzerland), doubly robust estimation (Germany), or synthetic controls (Switzerland). We find for both countries that a relatively later exposure to the measures entails higher cumulative hospitalization and death rates on region-specific days after the outbreak of the epidemic, suggesting that an earlier imposition of measures is more effective than a later one. For Germany, we further evaluate curfews (as introduced in a subset of states) based on cross-regional variation. We do not find any effects of curfews on top of the federally imposed contact restriction that banned groups of more than 2 individuals.
DOI : 10.1186/s41937-020-00054-w
Anahtar Kelimeler : COVID-19, Pandemic, Social distancing, Lockdown, Treatment effect, Synthetic control
ISSN: 2235-6282
Cilt: 156
Sayı: 1
Sayfa: 1 - 19
Sınıflandırma :
29
The COVID-19 lockdown in India: Impacts on the economy and the power sector
Dergi Makalesi

Dergi Makalesi
Kaynak :
Science Direct
Dergi:
Global Transitions
Yayıncı:
Elsevier
Yazar(lar) :
Tejal Kanitkar
Yıl :
2020
The COVID-19 lockdown in India: Impacts on the economy and the power sector
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DOI : 10.1016/j.glt.2020.07.005
ISSN: 2589-7918
Cilt: 2
Sayfa: 150-156
Sınıflandırma :
Çevre %25
Kirlilik %95

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