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Anticipating the Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Pandemic
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Open Access
Kaynak :
Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Dergi:
Frontiers in Public Health
Yazar(lar) :
Taranjot Kaur , Sukanta Sarkar , Sourangsu Chowdhury , Sudipta Kumar Sinha , Mohit Kumar Jolly , Partha Sharathi Dutta
Yıl :
2020
Anticipating the Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Pandemic The COVID- 19 outbreak was first declared an international public health, and it was later deemed a pandemic. Here, we report an empirical test of this phenomena on the COVID- 19 datasets of nine countries, including India, China, and the United States. /or lockdown interventions implemented and (b) the fraction of a nation's population being affected by COVID- 19 at that time. COVID-19
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The COVID-19 outbreak was first declared an international public health, and it was later deemed a pandemic. In most countries, the COVID-19 incidence curve rises sharply over a short period of time, suggesting a transition from a disease-free (or low-burden disease) equilibrium state to a sustained infected (or high-burden disease) state. Such a transition is often known to exhibit characteristics of “critical slowing down.” Critical slowing down can be, in general, successfully detected using many statistical measures, such as variance, lag-1 autocorrelation, density ratio, and skewness. Here, we report an empirical test of this phenomena on the COVID-19 datasets of nine countries, including India, China, and the United States. For most of the datasets, increases in variance and autocorrelation predict the onset of a critical transition. Our analysis suggests two key features in predicting the COVID-19 incidence curve for a specific country: (a) the timing of strict social distancing and/or lockdown interventions implemented and (b) the fraction of a nation's population being affected by COVID-19 at that time. Furthermore, using satellite data of nitrogen dioxide as an indicator of lockdown efficacy, we found that countries where lockdown was implemented early and firmly have been successful in reducing COVID-19 spread. These results are essential for designing effective strategies to control the spread/resurgence of infectious pandemics.
DOI : 10.3389/fpubh.2020.569669
Anahtar Kelimeler : COVID-19, critical transitions, indicators of critical slowing down, social distancing policies, non-pharmaceutical interventions
ISSN: 2296-2565
Cilt: 8
Sınıflandırma :
2
The Lipstick Effect During COVID-19 Lockdown
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Dergi Makalesi
Kaynak :
Science Direct
Dergi:
Clinics in Dermatology
Yayıncı:
Elsevier BV
Yazar(lar) :
Aanchal Bahl , Henriette De La Garza , Christina Lam , Neelam A. Vashi
Yıl :
2021
The Lipstick Effect During COVID-19 Lockdown E-commerce sales in beauty and personal care categories, compared to pre– COVID- 19, saw an increase.
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Although consumer spending typically declines during times of crisis, some observers have noted the tendency of consumers to spend more on less costly luxury goods instead, calling it the “lipstick effect.” E-commerce sales in beauty and personal care categories, compared to pre–COVID-19, saw an increase. The mass lockdowns across many states in the United States resulted in hospitals and cosmetic clinics suspending many services. We present several patients who developed complications following home-administered cosmetic procedures and presented via telemedicine clinic at the Department of Dermatology at Boston Medical Center in May 2020. The first case follows a patient who had platelet-rich plasma concentrate injected into her face by an unauthorized, presumed aesthetician in training. The second and third cases follow patients purchasing products from unregulated e-commerce retailers to self-administer injectable fillers and perform trichloroacetic acid chemical peels, respectively. We discuss the impact of social media in conjunction with extensive misinformation along with easily accessible products available on the Internet, and how this combination has encouraged self-injurious behavior and its consequences while lacking any means of accountability. This paper aims to encourage the spread of patient education and limit personal harm from self-administration of potentially injurious procedures.
DOI : 10.1016/j.clindermatol.2021.11.002
ISSN: 0738-081X
Sınıflandırma :
3
The COVID-19: macroeconomics scenarii and role of containment in Morocco
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Dergi Makalesi
Open Access
Kaynak :
Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Dergi:
One Health
Yazar(lar) :
Zakaria Firano , Filali Adib Fatine
Yıl :
2020
The COVID-19: macroeconomics scenarii and role of containment in Morocco
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In the present paper we are interested in the epidemiological evolution of Covid19 in Morocco and we try to simulate the possible trajectories of the contagion. The objective of this research is to model the economic consequences of the epidemic and also to highlight the importance of the containment policy in facilitating economic recovery in Morocco. The results obtained using a combination of Ramsey's model and the epidemiological propagation model affirm that the choice of the containment policy made it possible to reduce the negative repercussions of the pandemic on Morocco, despite the economic consequences of the latter. The comparisons made between the two situations confirm that the economic repercussions remain moderate and Morocco will be able to face this disaster with even stricter or even more intelligent containment.
Anahtar Kelimeler : COVID19, Economic conditions, Ramsey, Contagion
ISSN: 2352-7714
Cilt: 10
Sayfa: 100152
Sınıflandırma :
4
The Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak on the Household Economy
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Dergi Makalesi
Open Access
Kaynak :
Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Dergi:
Journal of Research in Medical and Dental Science
Yazar(lar) :
Bilal Celik , Kemal Ozden , Senol Dane
Yıl :
2020
The Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak on the Household Economy Introduction: COVID- 19 pandemic outbreak increased panic, anxiety, and depression level in both young and adult people and changed food consumption preferences In the present study, the effects of COVID- 19 pandemic outbreak and lockdown on the household economy (income and expenses) were investigated. The survey was conducted during the lockdown period of COVID- 19 when all participants were self-isolated at their residences. covid-19
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Introduction: COVID-19 pandemic outbreak increased panic, anxiety, and depression level in both young and adult people and changed food consumption preferences. In the present study, the effects of COVID-19 pandemic outbreak and lockdown on the household economy (income and expenses) were investigated. Method: This research consisted of four hundred and ninety-three participants/families. All of them accepted voluntarily to take part in this study (364 men and 129 women). An online survey was generated to get the household economy parameters, including income, total expenditure, and other expenses during COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. The survey was conducted during the lockdown period of COVID-19 when all participants were self-isolated at their residences. Results: There was a significant decrease in family incomes and a significant increase in family expenditures during COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. Although there were substantial increases in nutrition, cleaning, communication, water-electric-gas expenses, there were outstanding decreases in cultural and transportation expenses. Conclusion: The results of the present study display that COVID-19 pandemic outbreak has a powerful impact on incomes and expenses of families from various countries. The long-period lockdown can cause several expected and unexpected adverse results such as health problems and worsening economic conditions of people. Local highway and air transportation might be permitted, and higher education institutions may be recommenced by providing basic precautions such as face mask and social distance rules.
Anahtar Kelimeler : coronavirus, covid-19, household economy, incomes, expenses
Cilt: 8
Sayı: 4
Sayfa: 51 - 56
Sınıflandırma :
5
How and When to End the COVID-19 Lockdown: An Optimization Approach
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Dergi Makalesi
Open Access
Kaynak :
Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Dergi:
Frontiers in Public Health
Yazar(lar) :
Thomas Rawson , Tom Brewer , Dessislava Veltcheva , Chris Huntingford , Michael B. Bonsall
Yıl :
2020
How and When to End the COVID-19 Lockdown: An Optimization Approach COVID-19
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Countries around the world are in a state of lockdown to help limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2. However, as the number of new daily confirmed cases begins to decrease, governments must decide how to release their populations from quarantine as efficiently as possible without overwhelming their health services. We applied an optimal control framework to an adapted Susceptible-Exposure-Infection-Recovery (SEIR) model framework to investigate the efficacy of two potential lockdown release strategies, focusing on the UK population as a test case. To limit recurrent spread, we find that ending quarantine for the entire population simultaneously is a high-risk strategy, and that a gradual re-integration approach would be more reliable. Furthermore, to increase the number of people that can be first released, lockdown should not be ended until the number of new daily confirmed cases reaches a sufficiently low threshold. We model a gradual release strategy by allowing different fractions of those in lockdown to re-enter the working non-quarantined population. Mathematical optimization methods, combined with our adapted SEIR model, determine how to maximize those working while preventing the health service from being overwhelmed. The optimal strategy is broadly found to be to release approximately half the population 2–4 weeks from the end of an initial infection peak, then wait another 3–4 months to allow for a second peak before releasing everyone else. We also modeled an “on-off” strategy, of releasing everyone, but re-establishing lockdown if infections become too high. We conclude that the worst-case scenario of a gradual release is more manageable than the worst-case scenario of an on-off strategy, and caution against lockdown-release strategies based on a threshold-dependent on-off mechanism. The two quantities most critical in determining the optimal solution are transmission rate and the recovery rate, where the latter is defined as the fraction of infected people in any given day that then become classed as recovered. We suggest that the accurate identification of these values is of particular importance to the ongoing monitoring of the pandemic.
DOI : 10.3389/fpubh.2020.00262
Anahtar Kelimeler : optimization, quarantine, epidemiology, mathematical model, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2
ISSN: 2296-2565
Cilt: 8
Sınıflandırma :
6
Modeling, state estimation, and optimal control for the US COVID-19 outbreak
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Dergi Makalesi
Open Access
Kaynak :
Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Dergi:
Scientific Reports
Yazar(lar) :
Calvin Tsay , Fernando Lejarza , Mark A. Stadtherr , Michael Baldea
Yıl :
2020
Modeling, state estimation, and optimal control for the US COVID-19 outbreak Abstract The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and resulting COVID- 19 disease have had an unprecedented spread and continue to cause an increasing number of In this work, we introduce a novel optimization-based decision-making framework for managing the COVID- 19 outbreak in the US.
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Abstract The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and resulting COVID-19 disease have had an unprecedented spread and continue to cause an increasing number of fatalities worldwide. While vaccines are still under development, social distancing, extensive testing, and quarantining of confirmed infected subjects remain the most effective measures to contain the pandemic. These measures carry a significant socioeconomic cost. In this work, we introduce a novel optimization-based decision-making framework for managing the COVID-19 outbreak in the US. This includes modeling the dynamics of affected populations, estimating the model parameters and hidden states from data, and an optimal control strategy for sequencing social distancing and testing events such that the number of infections is minimized. The analysis of our extensive computational efforts reveals that social distancing and quarantining are most effective when implemented early, with quarantining of confirmed infected subjects having a much higher impact. Further, we find that “on-off” policies alternating between strict social distancing and relaxing such restrictions can be effective at “flattening” the curve while likely minimizing social and economic cost.
DOI : 10.1038/s41598-020-67459-8
ISSN: 2045-2322
Cilt: 10
Sayı: 1
Sayfa: 1 - 12
Sınıflandırma :
7
Epidemiology of Coronavirus COVID-19: Forecasting the Future Incidence in Different Countries
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Dergi Makalesi
Open Access
Kaynak 1:
Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Kaynak 2:
MDPI
Dergi:
Healthcare
Yazar(lar) :
Johannes Stübinger , Lucas Schneider
Yıl :
2020
Epidemiology of Coronavirus COVID-19: Forecasting the Future Incidence in Different Countries This paper forecasts the future spread of COVID- 19 by exploiting the identified lead-lag effects between different countries. COVID-19
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This paper forecasts the future spread of COVID-19 by exploiting the identified lead-lag effects between different countries. Specifically, we first determine the past relation among nations with the aid of dynamic time warping. This procedure allows an elastic adjustment of the time axis to find similar but phase-shifted sequences. Afterwards, the established framework utilizes information about the leading country to predict the Coronavirus spread of the following nation. The presented methodology is applied to confirmed Coronavirus cases from 1 January 2020 to 28 March 2020. Our results show that China leads all other countries in the range of 29 days for South Korea and 44 days for the United States. Finally, we predict a future collapse of the healthcare systems of the United Kingdom and Switzerland in case of our explosion scenario.
DOI : 10.3390/healthcare8020099
Anahtar Kelimeler : Coronavirus, COVID-19, epidemiology, incidence, dynamic time warping, lead-lag effects
ISSN: 2227-9032
Cilt: 8
Sayı: 99
Sayfa: 99
Sınıflandırma :
8
Time, space and social interactions: exit mechanisms for the Covid-19 epidemics
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Open Access
Kaynak :
Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Dergi:
Scientific Reports
Yazar(lar) :
Antonio Scala , Andrea Flori , Alessandro Spelta , Emanuele Brugnoli , Matteo Cinelli , Walter Quattrociocchi , Fabio Pammolli
Yıl :
2020
Time, space and social interactions: exit mechanisms for the Covid-19 epidemics Abstract We develop a minimalist compartmental model to study the impact of mobility restrictions in Italy during the Covid- 19 outbreak.
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Abstract We develop a minimalist compartmental model to study the impact of mobility restrictions in Italy during the Covid-19 outbreak. We show that, while an early lockdown shifts the contagion in time, beyond a critical value of lockdown strength the epidemic tends to restart after lifting the restrictions. We characterize the relative importance of different lockdown lifting schemes by accounting for two fundamental sources of heterogeneity, i.e. geography and demography. First, we consider Italian Regions as separate administrative entities, in which social interactions between age classes occur. We show that, due to the sparsity of the inter-Regional mobility matrix, once started, the epidemic spreading tends to develop independently across areas, justifying the adoption of mobility restrictions targeted to individual Regions or clusters of Regions. Second, we show that social contacts between members of different age classes play a fundamental role and that interventions which target local behaviours and take into account the age structure of the population can provide a significant contribution to mitigate the epidemic spreading. Our model aims to provide a general framework, and it highlights the relevance of some key parameters on non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain the contagion.
DOI : 10.1038/s41598-020-70631-9
ISSN: 2045-2322
Cilt: 10
Sayı: 1
Sayfa: 1 - 12
Sınıflandırma :
9
Mobility and the effective reproduction rate of COVID-19
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Kaynak :
Science Direct
Dergi:
Journal of Transport & Health
Yayıncı:
Elsevier BV
Yazar(lar) :
Robert B. Noland
Yıl :
2021
Mobility and the effective reproduction rate of COVID-19 Due to the infectiousness of COVID- 19, the mobility of individuals has sharply decreased, both in response to government policy and self-protection. Rt for US states are downloaded from an on-line platform that derives daily estimates based on data from the Covid Tracking Project (Wissel et al., 2020 COVID-19
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Due to the infectiousness of COVID-19, the mobility of individuals has sharply decreased, both in response to government policy and self-protection. This analysis seeks to understand how mobility reductions reduce the spread of the coronavirus (SAR-CoV-2), using readily available data sources. Methods Mobility data from Google is correlated with estimates of the effective reproduction rate, Rt, which is a measure of viral infectiousness (Google, 2020). The Google mobility data provides estimates of reductions in mobility, for six types of trips and activities. Rt for US states are downloaded from an on-line platform that derives daily estimates based on data from the Covid Tracking Project (Wissel et al., 2020; Systrom et al., 2020). Fixed effects models are estimated relating mean Rt and 80% upper level credible interval estimates to changes in mobility and a time-trend value and with both 7-day and 14-day lags. Results All mobility variables are correlated with median Rt and the upper level credible interval of Rt. Staying at home is effective at reducing Rt,. Time spent at parks has a small positive effect, while other activities all have larger positive effects. The time trend is negative suggesting increases in self-protective behavior. Predictions suggest that returning to baseline levels of activity for retail, transit, and workplaces, will increase Rt above 1.0, but not for other activities. Mobility reductions of about 20–40% are needed to achieve an Rt below 1.0 (for the upper level 80% credible interval) and even larger reductions to achieve an Rt below 0.7. Conclusions Policy makers need to be cautious with encouraging return to normal mobility behavior, especially returns to workplaces, transit, and retail locations. Activity at parks appears to not increase Rt as much. This research also demonstrates the value of using on-line data sources to conduct rapid policy-relevant analysis of emerging issues.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jth.2021.101016
Anahtar Kelimeler : COVID-19, Mobility, Social-distancing
ISSN: 2214-1405
Cilt: 20
Sayfa: 101016
Sınıflandırma :
10
Fostering Analysis of Livelihood Pre and Post Covid-19 using ML Techniques
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Konferans Bildirileri
Kaynak :
IEEE Xplore
Yazar(lar) :
Sheetal Mahendher , Shivam Singhal , Khazi Mohammed Owais , Maheshwaran S. , Benedict Robin
Konu :
Communication, Networking and Broadcast Technologies, Components, Circuits, Devices and Systems, Computing and Processing, Engineering Profession, General Topics for Engineers
Yıl :
2021
Fostering Analysis of Livelihood Pre and Post Covid-19 using ML Techniques The paper also included the mental health of the people before and after the COVID lockdown. COVID-19 post covid-19 Covid
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The energy sector is one of the major disrupted industries during the time of the lockdowns in all countries. This is causing an irregularity in supply and demand creating various challenges to the sector. The paper provides a comprehensive view on the factors affecting the power usage by the households and the change in trends of consumption of electricity. The paper also included the mental health of the people before and after the COVID lockdown. Two models were created, linear regression for power consumption and logistical regression for mental health. They were verified using various techniques. The purpose of these models is to help researchers and enthusiasts get a better idea about the relationship between various factors which are affecting the power consumption and mental health during the lockdown. They can also be used to predict the outcome if incase any similar event occurs in future.
DOI : 10.1109/icrito51393.2021.9596079
Anahtar Kelimeler : COVID-19, Analytical models, Power demand, Uncertainty, Linear regression, Mental health, Predictive models, consumer behaviour, electricity supply industry, learning (artificial intelligence), logistics, production engineering computing, regression analysis, post covid-19, ML techniques, energy sector, comprehensive view, power usage, mental health, COVID lockdown, linear regression, power consumption, logistical regression, Covid, Power Consumption, Mental Health, Machine Learning
Etkinlik adı: 2021 9th International Conference on Reliability, Infocom Technologies and Optimization (Trends and Future Directions) (ICRITO)
Etkinlik yeri: Noida, India
Etkinlik başlangıç tarihi: [2021,9,3]
Etkinlik bitiş tarihi: [2021,9,4]
Sınıflandırma :
11
Who can go back to work when the COVID-19 pandemic remits?
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Open Access
Kaynak :
Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Dergi:
PLoS ONE
Yazar(lar) :
Luis Angel Hierro , David Cantarero , David Patiño , Daniel Rodríguez-Pérez de Arenaza
Yıl :
2020
Who can go back to work when the COVID-19 pandemic remits? We apply SSMD to Spain, based on affiliation to the Social Security system prior to the COVID- 19 pandemic, and conclude that 98.37% of the population could
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This paper seeks to determine which workers affected by lockdown measures can return to work when a government decides to apply lockdown exit strategies. This system, which we call Sequential Selective Multidimensional Decision (SSMD), involves deciding sequentially, by geographical areas, sectors of activity, age groups and immunity, which workers can return to work at a given time according to the epidemiological criteria of the country as well as that of a group of reference countries, used as a benchmark, that have suffered a lower level of lockdown de-escalation strategies. We apply SSMD to Spain, based on affiliation to the Social Security system prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, and conclude that 98.37% of the population could be affected. The proposed system makes it possible to accurately identify the target population for serological IgG antibody tests in the work field, as well as those affected by special income replacement measures due to lockdown being maintained over a longer period.
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pone.0238299
ISSN: 1932-6203
Cilt: 15
Sayı: 8
Sayfa: e0238299
Sınıflandırma :
12
The “Great Lockdown”: Inactive workers and mortality by Covid‐19
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Dergi Makalesi
Kaynak :
Wiley Online Library
Dergi:
Health Economics
Yazar(lar) :
Nicola Borri , Francesco Drago , Chiara Santantonio , Francesco Sobbrio
Yıl :
2021
The “Great Lockdown”: Inactive workers and mortality by Covid‐19 In response to the Covid‐ 19 outbreak, the Italian Government imposed an economic lockdown on March 22, 2020, and ordered the closing of all non‐essential This paper estimates the causal effects of this measure on mortality by Covid‐ 19 and on mobility patterns. Our results show that the intensity of the economic lockdown is associated with a statistically significant reduction in mortality by Covid‐ 19 and, in
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In response to the Covid‐19 outbreak, the Italian Government imposed an economic lockdown on March 22, 2020, and ordered the closing of all non‐essential economic activities. This paper estimates the causal effects of this measure on mortality by Covid‐19 and on mobility patterns. The identification of the causal effects exploits the variation in the active population across municipalities induced by the economic lockdown. The difference‐in‐differences empirical design compares outcomes in municipalities above and below the median variation in the share of active population before and after the lockdown within a province, also controlling for municipality‐specific dynamics, daily shocks at the provincial level, and municipal unobserved characteristics. Our results show that the intensity of the economic lockdown is associated with a statistically significant reduction in mortality by Covid‐19 and, in particular, for age groups between 40 and 64 and older (with larger and more significant effects for individuals above 50). Back of the envelope calculations indicate that 4793 deaths were avoided, in the 26 days between April 5 and April 30, in the 3518 municipalities which experienced a more intense lockdown. Several robustness checks corroborate our empirical findings.
DOI : 10.1002/hec.4383
ISSN: 1057-9230
Sayı: 10
Cilt: 30
Sayfa: 2367-2382
Sınıflandırma :
13
Americans' Food Spending Patterns Explain Devastating Impact of COVID-19 Lockdowns on Agriculture
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Dergi Makalesi
Open Access
Kaynak :
Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Dergi:
Journal of Agriculture, Food Systems, and Community Development
Yazar(lar) :
Stephan Goetz , Claudia Schmidt , Lisa Chase , Jane Kolodinsky
Yıl :
2020
Americans' Food Spending Patterns Explain Devastating Impact of COVID-19 Lockdowns on Agriculture Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service’s Food Expenditures by Outlet data provide insight as to why the lockdowns related to COVID- 19 have restaurants, $337.8bn at full-service restaurants and $340.2bn at limited-service restaurants.[2] The social distancing and stay-at-home orders related to the COVID - 19 pandemic have forced many restaurants to close and those remaining in business to switch to pick-up or delivery only options. COVID-19
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First paragraph: The U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service’s Food Expenditures by Outlet data provide insight as to why the lockdowns related to COVID-19 have been so devastating for U.S. farmers. In 2018, American consumers bought a total of $628bn[1] worth of food, of which $460bn was spent at grocery stores and $168bn at warehouse clubs and supercenters (see Figure 1 and Table 1). But expenditures on food away from home exceeded that amount: $680bn was spent at restaurants, $337.8bn at full-service restaurants and $340.2bn at limited-service restaurants.[2] The social distancing and stay-at-home orders related to the COVID-19 pandemic have forced many restaurants to close and those remaining in business to switch to pick-up or delivery only options. Because restaurant supply chains are highly specialized and time sensitive, reallocation of these supply chains has not come quickly enough to accommodate the shifts in consumption toward at-home eating patterns. . . . [1] All amounts are in U.S. dollars. [2] Not all of this represents the value of agricultural products; a large share of this is value-added in the form of rents and wages.
DOI : 10.5304/jafscd.2020.093.033
Anahtar Kelimeler : COVID-19, Pandemic, Food Spending, Consumer Purchasing, Agriculture, Direct-to-Consumer Sales
Cilt: 9
Sayı: 3
Sınıflandırma :
14
Combating the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of disaster experience
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Dergi Makalesi
Kaynak :
Science Direct
Dergi:
Research in International Business and Finance
Yayıncı:
Elsevier BV
Yazar(lar) :
Jie Li , Yahui An , Lidan Wang , Yongjie Zhang
Yıl :
2022
Combating the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of disaster experience Specifically, we find that during the first COVID- 19 outbreak in Wuhan, China, people in countries with SDE searched for related information more frequently Moreover, we find that a higher level of attention to COVID- 19, as measured by Google search index usage, led to greater declines in stock market indexes - 19 in a timely manner. COVID-19
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In this study, we provide evidence suggesting that in countries with severe disaster experience (SDE), the response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is characterized by a higher level of attention in the population, more timely market responses, and stricter government containment measures. Specifically, we find that during the first COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China, people in countries with SDE searched for related information more frequently on Google than did people in countries with mild disaster experience (MDE). Moreover, we find that a higher level of attention to COVID-19, as measured by Google search index usage, led to greater declines in stock market indexes in countries with SDE than in those with MDE. Finally, we find that compared with countries with MDE, those with SDE implemented more stringent social distancing policies in response to domestic COVID-19 outbreaks, and individuals in the latter group of countries were more likely to follow government-imposed rules of social distancing in both the early outbreak and reopening phases. Our findings suggest that disaster experience increases risk aversion and is an essential mechanism by which individuals, markets, and countries respond to COVID-19 in a timely manner.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ribaf.2021.101581
Anahtar Kelimeler : G10, I10, D83, COVID-19, Disaster experience, Google search, Containment measures
ISSN: 0275-5319
Cilt: 60
Sayfa: 101581
Sınıflandırma :
15
Unemployment in Switzerland in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic: an intertemporal perspective
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Open Access
Kaynak :
Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Dergi:
Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics
Yazar(lar) :
George Sheldon
Yıl :
2020
Unemployment in Switzerland in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic: an intertemporal perspective Abstract The following contribution compares the unemployment situation arising from the lockdown induced by the Covid- 19 pandemic with previous employment Covid-19
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Abstract The following contribution compares the unemployment situation arising from the lockdown induced by the Covid-19 pandemic with previous employment crises in Switzerland. In addition, it forecasts the future trajectory of unemployment based on ongoing changes in hazard rates. From a historical perspective, current unemployment as well as that expected by the federal authorities in the medium term do not seem that dramatic. Current hazard rates present a different picture, however, predicting increases in both the unemployment rate and long-term unemployment to record levels.
DOI : 10.1186/s41937-020-00058-6
Anahtar Kelimeler : Unemployment, Incidence, Duration, Covid-19, Switzerland
ISSN: 2235-6282
Cilt: 156
Sayı: 1
Sayfa: 1 - 9
Sınıflandırma :
16
Survival-Convolution Models for Predicting COVID-19 Cases and Assessing Effects of Mitigation Strategies
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Dergi Makalesi
Open Access
Kaynak :
Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Dergi:
Frontiers in Public Health
Yazar(lar) :
Qinxia Wang , Shanghong Xie , Yuanjia Wang , Donglin Zeng
Yıl :
2020
Survival-Convolution Models for Predicting COVID-19 Cases and Assessing Effects of Mitigation Strategies Countries around the globe have implemented unprecedented measures to mitigate the coronavirus disease 2019 ( COVID- 19) pandemic. We aim to predict the COVID- 19 disease course and compare the effectiveness of mitigation measures across countries to inform policy decision making using If the trend continues after May 1, COVID- 19 may be controlled by late July. COVID-19
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Countries around the globe have implemented unprecedented measures to mitigate the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We aim to predict the COVID-19 disease course and compare the effectiveness of mitigation measures across countries to inform policy decision making using a robust and parsimonious survival-convolution model. We account for transmission during a pre-symptomatic incubation period and use a time-varying effective reproduction number (Rt) to reflect the temporal trend of transmission and change in response to a public health intervention. We estimate the intervention effect on reducing the transmission rate using a natural experiment design and quantify uncertainty by permutation. In China and South Korea, we predicted the entire disease epidemic using only early phase data (2–3 weeks after the outbreak). A fast rate of decline in Rt was observed, and adopting mitigation strategies early in the epidemic was effective in reducing the transmission rate in these two countries. The nationwide lockdown in Italy did not accelerate the speed at which the transmission rate decreases. In the United States, Rt significantly decreased during a 2-week period after the declaration of national emergency, but it declined at a much slower rate afterwards. If the trend continues after May 1, COVID-19 may be controlled by late July. However, a loss of temporal effect (e.g., due to relaxing mitigation measures after May 1) could lead to a long delay in controlling the epidemic (mid-November with fewer than 100 daily cases) and a total of more than 2 million cases.
DOI : 10.3389/fpubh.2020.00325
Anahtar Kelimeler : COVID-19, survival-convolution model, time-varying effective reproduction number, mitigation measures, prediction
ISSN: 2296-2565
Cilt: 8
Sınıflandırma :
17
Early Signs Indicate That COVID-19 Is Exacerbating Gender Inequality in the Labor Force
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Dergi Makalesi
Open Access
Kaynak :
Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Dergi:
Socius
Yazar(lar) :
Liana Christin Landivar , Leah Ruppanner , William J. Scarborough , Caitlyn Collins
Yıl :
2020
Early Signs Indicate That COVID-19 Is Exacerbating Gender Inequality in the Labor Force In this data visualization, the authors examine how the coronavirus disease 2019 ( COVID- 19) crisis in the United States has affected labor force participation The findings illustrate that women, particularly mothers, have employment disproportionately affected by COVID- 19. These patterns suggest that the COVID- 19 crisis is already worsening existing gender inequality, with long-term implications for women’s employment.
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In this data visualization, the authors examine how the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis in the United States has affected labor force participation, unemployment, and work hours across gender and parental status. Using data from the Current Population Survey, the authors compare estimates between February and April 2020 to examine the period of time before the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States to the height of the first wave, when stay-at-home orders were issued across the country. The findings illustrate that women, particularly mothers, have employment disproportionately affected by COVID-19. Mothers are more likely than fathers to exit the labor force and become unemployed. Among heterosexual married couples of which both partners work in telecommuting-capable occupations, mothers have scaled back their work hours to a far greater extent than fathers. These patterns suggest that the COVID-19 crisis is already worsening existing gender inequality, with long-term implications for women’s employment.
DOI : 10.1177/2378023120947997
ISSN: 2378-0231
Cilt: 6
Sınıflandırma :
18
Early evidence of the impacts of COVID-19 on minority unemployment
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Dergi Makalesi
Kaynak :
Science Direct
Dergi:
Journal of Public Economics
Yayıncı:
Elsevier
Yazar(lar) :
Kenneth A. Couch , Robert W. Fairlie , Huanan Xu
Yıl :
2020
Early evidence of the impacts of COVID-19 on minority unemployment This paper provides early evidence of the impacts of the COVID- 19 pandemic on minority unemployment in the United States. COVID-19
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This paper provides early evidence of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on minority unemployment in the United States. In the first month following March adoptions of social distancing measures by states, unemployment rose to 14.5% but a much higher 24.4% when we correct for potential data misclassification noted by the BLS. Using the official definition, unemployment in April 2020 among African-Americans rose by less than what would have been anticipated (to 16.6%) based on previous recessions, and the long-term ordering of unemployment across racial/ethnic groups was altered with Latinx unemployment (18.2%) rising for the first time to the highest among major groups. Difference-in-difference estimates confirm that the initial gap in unemployment between whites and blacks in April was not different than in periods prior to the pandemic; however, the racial gap expanded as unemployment for whites declined in the next two months but was largely stagnant for blacks. The initially large gap in unemployment between whites and Latinx in April was sustained in May and June as unemployment declined similarly for both groups. Non-linear decompositions show a favorable industry distribution partly protected black employment during the early stages of the pandemic, but that an unfavorable occupational distribution and lower average skills levels placed them at higher risk of job losses. An unfavorable occupational distribution and lower skills contributed to a sharply widened Latinx-white unemployment gap that moderated over time as rehiring occurred. These findings of disproportionate impacts on minority unemployment raise important concerns regarding lost earnings and wealth, and longer-term consequences of the pandemic on racial inequality in the United States.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104287
Anahtar Kelimeler : J6, J7, J15, Unemployment, Inequality, Labor, Race, Minorities, COVID-19, Coronavirus, Shelter-in-place, Social distancing
ISSN: 0047-2727
Cilt: 192
Sayfa: 104287
Sınıflandırma :
19
Who loses income during the COVID-19 outbreak? Evidence from China
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Dergi Makalesi
Kaynak :
Science Direct
Dergi:
Research in Social Stratification and Mobility
Yayıncı:
Elsevier
Yazar(lar) :
Yue Qian , Wen Fan
Yıl :
2020
Who loses income during the COVID-19 outbreak? Evidence from China The COVID- 19 pandemic has transformed every facet of society. - 19 outbreak. In addition, people who live in families or regions that were hit harder by COVID- 19 are more likely to experience income losses. COVID-19
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The COVID-19 pandemic has transformed every facet of society. In addition to directly affecting population health, the economic impact of this social shock has begun to be palpable at the individual level. Situated in this context, this research note draws on data collected from Mainland China in March–April, 2020 to examine the individual-level economic toll of the COVID-19 outbreak. We investigate how individuals’ income (when surveyed) has changed relative to before the outbreak, and pay particular attention to the potentially unequal distribution of economic vulnerability based on structural (dis)advantages and COVID-19 related conditions. We show that education, family economic status, Communist Party membership, state-sector employment, and urban hukou—all long-standing status markers in China—mitigate the adverse effects of the COVID-19 outbreak on individuals’ income losses. In addition, people who live in families or regions that were hit harder by COVID-19 are more likely to experience income losses. Taken together, this study shows that the COVID-19 pandemic not only exacerbates pre-existing social inequalities but also creates new forms of disparities. Therefore, instead of acting as a great equalizer, the pandemic may well magnify the social distribution of economic vulnerability. To alleviate inequality and aid post-pandemic recovery, public policies need to be oriented toward vulnerable and marginalized populations.
DOI : 10.1016/j.rssm.2020.100522
Anahtar Kelimeler : COVID-19, China, Income, Inequality, Stratification
ISSN: 0276-5624
Cilt: 68
Sayfa: 100522
Sınıflandırma :
20
Women pay the price of COVID-19 more than men
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Dergi Makalesi
Kaynak :
Springer Link
Dergi:
Review of Economics of the Household
Yazar(lar) :
Enrica Croda , Shoshana Grossbard
Konu :
Economics and Econometrics, Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
Yıl :
2021
Women pay the price of COVID-19 more than men The COVID- 19 pandemic is an unprecedented event with wide-ranging implications. - 19 and the economics of the household. Here we review eight articles documenting the enormous costs of the COVID containment policies, in particular the school closures that ensued.
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The COVID-19 pandemic is an unprecedented event with wide-ranging implications. Given that households are at the center of major changes affecting the entire world, the Review of Economics of the Household is publishing a series of issues on COVID-19 and the economics of the household. Here we review eight articles documenting the enormous costs of the COVID containment policies, in particular the school closures that ensued. Individuals paid a heavy cost in terms of disruption in their attachment to the labor force. Children could not go to school and parents were forced to provide extra childcare and spend significant amounts of time helping children continue to learn, while possibly working from home. Domestic violence became more common. These changes have often been traumatic, to the detriment of the well-being and mental health of large numbers of people. Women have paid a higher price than men, as many of the studies demonstrate. Our conclusion calls for policy-makers to prepare for the post-traumatic period: many households will need help.
DOI : 10.1007/s11150-021-09549-8
ISSN: 1569-5239 1573-7152
Sayı: 1
Cilt: 19
Sayfa: 1-9
Sınıflandırma :
21
Impact of lockdown on COVID-19 epidemic in Île-de-France and possible exit strategies
Dergi Makalesi

Dergi Makalesi
Open Access
Kaynak :
Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Dergi:
BMC Medicine
Yazar(lar) :
Laura Di Domenico , Giulia Pullano , Chiara E. Sabbatini , Pierre-Yves Boëlle , Vittoria Colizza
Yıl :
2020
Impact of lockdown on COVID-19 epidemic in Île-de-France and possible exit strategies Estimating the expected impact of lockdown and exit strategies is critical to inform decision makers on the management of the COVID- 19 health crisis. Conclusions As France experiences the first wave of COVID- 19 pandemic in lockdown, intensive forms of social distancing are required in the upcoming months COVID-19
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Abstract Background More than half of the global population is under strict forms of social distancing. Estimating the expected impact of lockdown and exit strategies is critical to inform decision makers on the management of the COVID-19 health crisis. Methods We use a stochastic age-structured transmission model integrating data on age profile and social contacts in Île-de-France to (i) assess the epidemic in the region, (ii) evaluate the impact of lockdown, and (iii) propose possible exit strategies and estimate their effectiveness. The model is calibrated to hospital admission data before lockdown. Interventions are modeled by reconstructing the associated changes in the contact matrices and informed by mobility reductions during lockdown evaluated from mobile phone data. Different types and durations of social distancing are simulated, including progressive and targeted strategies, with large-scale testing. Results We estimate the reproductive number at 3.18 [3.09, 3.24] (95% confidence interval) prior to lockdown and at 0.68 [0.66, 0.69] during lockdown, thanks to an 81% reduction of the average number of contacts. Model predictions capture the disease dynamics during lockdown, showing the epidemic curve reaching ICU system capacity, largely strengthened during the emergency, and slowly decreasing. Results suggest that physical contacts outside households were largely avoided during lockdown. Lifting the lockdown with no exit strategy would lead to a second wave overwhelming the healthcare system, if conditions return to normal. Extensive case finding and isolation are required for social distancing strategies to gradually relax lockdown constraints. Conclusions As France experiences the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in lockdown, intensive forms of social distancing are required in the upcoming months due to the currently low population immunity. Extensive case finding and isolation would allow the partial release of the socio-economic pressure caused by extreme measures, while avoiding healthcare demand exceeding capacity. Response planning needs to urgently prioritize the logistics and capacity for these interventions.
DOI : 10.1186/s12916-020-01698-4
Anahtar Kelimeler : COVID-19, Mathematical modeling, Lockdown, Exit strategies, Non-pharmaceutical interventions, Social distancing
ISSN: 1741-7015
Cilt: 18
Sayı: 1
Sayfa: 1 - 13
Sınıflandırma :
Çevre %20
Kirlilik %100
22
COVID-19 Lockdown Measures on Least Developing Economies in Africa-a case of Malawi Economy
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Dergi Makalesi
Open Access
Kaynak :
Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Dergi:
Technium Social Sciences Journal
Yazar(lar) :
George N. Chidimbah Munthali , Wu Xuelian
Yıl :
2020
COVID-19 Lockdown Measures on Least Developing Economies in Africa-a case of Malawi Economy The outbreak of COVID- 19 pandemic has caused the entire world at standstill affecting all the sectors of economies in the whole world.
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The outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic has caused the entire world at standstill affecting all the sectors of economies in the whole world. In order to reduce the spread of the cases and the mortality rate of this pandemics many economies have implemented a lot of social distancing measurers with the aim of separating people direct and indirect contacts as the Virus can be transferred through physical contact and is also an airborne, these isolations measures have proved to be effective in many countries. One of the most measures that the developed and developing economies are using is partial or full lockdown, despite being effective way of reducing the impact of the Virus, lockdown measures has also its own cost that the economies are to bier especially when it’s a total or full countrywide lockdown which policy makers must look into too. The approaches of lockdowns and attitudes of people towards lockdowns has been seen differencing in many countries depending on the political system of the government which is in that jurisdiction economic status of the country. This perspective recommends that Countries like Malawi and any other when implementing these lockdowns measures the authorities should consider the political system, costs and other the measures to carter for helping the people like proving stimulus package in order to have a successfully and effective lockdown which is highly recommended to be an effective way of combating the Virus.
Anahtar Kelimeler : the corresponding aurther is the second one
ISSN: 2668-7798
Cilt: 7
Sayfa: 295 - 301
Sınıflandırma :
23
An Optimal Lockdown Relaxation Strategy for Minimizing the Economic Effects of COVID-19 Outbreak
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Dergi Makalesi
Open Access
Kaynak :
Hindawi Limited
Dergi:
International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences
Yayıncı:
Hindawi
Yazar(lar) :
A. C. Mahasinghe , Er , K. K. W. H. i , S. S. N. Perera
Yıl :
2021
An Optimal Lockdown Relaxation Strategy for Minimizing the Economic Effects of COVID-19 Outbreak In order to recover the damage to the economy by the ongoing COVID- 19 pandemic, many countries consider the transition from strict lockdowns to partial In this work, we propose an optimal lockdown relaxation strategy, which is aimed at minimizing the damage to the economy, while confining the COVID- 19 We generate approximate solutions to the problem, whereas our experimentation is based on the data on the COVID- 19 outbreak in Sri Lanka.
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In order to recover the damage to the economy by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, many countries consider the transition from strict lockdowns to partial lockdowns through relaxation of preventive measures. In this work, we propose an optimal lockdown relaxation strategy, which is aimed at minimizing the damage to the economy, while confining the COVID-19 incidence to a level endurable by the available healthcare facilities in the country. In order to capture the transmission dynamics, we adopt the compartment models and develop the relevant optimization model, which turns out to be nonlinear. We generate approximate solutions to the problem, whereas our experimentation is based on the data on the COVID-19 outbreak in Sri Lanka.
DOI : https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/6684271
Cilt: 2021
ISSN: 0161-1712
Sınıflandırma :
24
Covid-19, Kapitalizm ve Devletin Düzenleyici Rolü
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Dergi Makalesi
Kaynak :
Sobiad Atıf Dizini
Dergi:
Marmara Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilimler Dergisi
Yazar(lar) :
Neslisah Leman BAŞARAN LOTZ
Covid-19, Kapitalizm ve Devletin Düzenleyici Rolü Yazı, regülasyon teorisinin krizler, kurumlar ve özel olarak da devletin ekonomideki rolüne dair analizleri çerçevesinde Covid- 19’un yarattığı ekonomik Yazıda, bir yandan pandemiden önce kapitalizmin kriz dinamikleri öte yandan da Covid- 19 pandemisi ve pandemiye karşı alınan önlemlerin mevcut sisteme etkisi Oysaki 2008 krizi ve şimdi de Covid- 19 pandemisi, devletin düzenleyici rolünün azalmadığını bilakis arttığı göstermektedir. Covid 19
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Bu yazı Robert Boyer’nin Les capitalismes à l'épreuve de la pandémie (Pandemi Sınavında Kapitalizmler) kitabından yola çıkarak son on yıllarda kapitalizmin yönelimlerinin Covid-19 krizi ile ne tür sonuçlar doğurduğunu ve devletin bu süreçte nasıl bir rol oynadığını inceliyor. Yazı, regülasyon teorisinin krizler, kurumlar ve özel olarak da devletin ekonomideki rolüne dair analizleri çerçevesinde Covid-19’un yarattığı ekonomik ve toplumsal krize nasıl yaklaşılması gerektiğini ele alıyor. Yazıda ayrıca, regülasyon teorisinin tespitleri, eleştirel siyasal iktisat alanında çalışan diğer iktisatçı ve sosyal bilimcilerin pandemi ve kapitalizm ilişkisine dair değerlendirmeleri ile karşılaştırılıyor. Yazıda, bir yandan pandemiden önce kapitalizmin kriz dinamikleri öte yandan da Covid-19 pandemisi ve pandemiye karşı alınan önlemlerin mevcut sisteme etkisi tartışılıyor. Yazının ön plana çıkardığı tespitlerden biri, Covid-19’un yeni bir kriz ortaya çıkarmadığı, kapitalizmin on yılı aşkındır içinde bulunduğu krizi derinleştirdiği yönündedir. Yazıda ayrıca sağlık krizinin, kapitalizmin mekanizmaları dolayısıyla ortaya çıktığı ve yine o mekanizmalar dolayısıyla çözülemediği irdeleniyor. Yazının temel sorunsalı kapitalizmde devletin rolünün nasıl tanımlanması gerektiği ve günümüz ekonomik sisteminde devlet müdahalesinin istisnai olup olmadığıdır. 1980’ler sonrası dünyada ve Türkiye’de etkili olan neoliberal söylem ve politikalara devletin küçüleceği ve ekonomik alana giderek daha az müdahil olacağı düşüncesi hâkim olmuştur. Oysaki 2008 krizi ve şimdi de Covid-19 pandemisi, devletin düzenleyici rolünün azalmadığını bilakis arttığı göstermektedir. Bu yazının amacı da regülasyon ekolünün pandemi vesilesiyle yaptığı değerlendirmeleri gündeme getirerek, kapitalizmde devletin düzenleyici rolünün ve ulus-devletin belirleyiciliğinin altını çizmek ve Türkiye kapitalizminin gelişiminde devletin rolü konusundaki değerlendirmelere teorik ipuçları sunmaktır. Yazının ortaya koyduğu tespit, pandemi sürecinde bir taraftan ulusaşırı şirketler güçlenirken öte yandan da ulus-devletlerin ekonomi üzerindeki etkisinin artmasıdır. Özellikle hükümetlerin almak durumunda kaldığı ekonomik tedbirler sosyal devletin gerekliliğini yeniden gündeme getirmiştir. Bu da regülasyon teorisinin iddiası ile uyumludur: devletin çeşitli kurumsal şekillenmeler ile müdahil olmadığı, salt piyasa kurallarına göre işleyen bir kapitalizm en azından krizler söz konusu olduğunda sürdürülebilir değildir.
DOI : 10.14782/marmarasbd.940161
Anahtar Kelimeler : Covid 19, Regülasyon Teorisi, Siyasal İktisat
Sınıflandırma :
25
The system dynamic model of the labor migrant policy in economic growth affected by COVID-19
Dergi Makalesi

Dergi Makalesi
Open Access
Kaynak :
Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
Dergi:
Global Journal of Environmental Science and Management
Yazar(lar) :
S. Kozlovskyi , D. Bilenko , M. Kuzheliev , R. Lavrov , V. Kozlovskyi , H. Mazur , A. Taranych
Yıl :
2020
The system dynamic model of the labor migrant policy in economic growth affected by COVID-19 At the end of 2019, the new virus called Coronavirus Disease ( Covid- 19) spread widely from China all over the world. If migrant workers leave the host country, it reduces the Covid- 19 spread. It examined through hypotheses of different scenarios of labor migrants policy impact on the host country economic growth in Covid- 19 pandemic. covid-19 (coronavirus) pandemic
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At the end of 2019, the new virus called Coronavirus Disease (Covid-19) spread widely from China all over the world. In March 2020 the World Health Organization declared a new virus outbreak as “a global pandemic”, and recommended social distancing and quarantine. Most countries in Europe have been quarantined. The social aspect of this issue is complicated by the fact that Europe nowadays hosts 82 million international migrants. If migrant workers leave the host country, it reduces the Covid-19 spread. Nevertheless, if migrant workers do not return, it will worsen the situation with the economic crisis. The subject of the study is the instrumental and mathematical aspects of impact simulation of labor migrants’ policy on the economic growth of the host country affected by COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of the work is to develop the system dynamics model for assessing labor migrants’ policy impact on the economic growth of the host country during COVID-19 pandemic. It examined through hypotheses of different scenarios of labor migrants policy impact on the host country economic growth in Covid-19 pandemic. The proposed model combines epidemiological and the economic growth models and relies upon real statistical data. The analysis was carried out in four European countries. The results of the study enabled to state that without migrant workers the gross domestic product may fall to 43% in Italy, 45% in Netherlands, 37% in Spain and 200% in Switzerland in 2020.
DOI : 10.22034/GJESM.2019.06.SI.09
Anahtar Kelimeler : covid-19 (coronavirus) pandemic, epidemiological model, economic growth, gross domestic product, migrant worker, system dynamics model
Cilt: 6
Sayı: Special (Covid-19)
Sayfa: 95 - 106
Sınıflandırma :
26
Countercyclical monetary policy for overcoming COVID 19 induced recession by introducing incentive based digital currency
Konferans Bildirileri

Konferans Bildirileri
Kaynak :
IEEE Xplore
Yazar(lar) :
Mohammad Selim
Konu :
Aerospace, Communication, Networking and Broadcast Technologies, Components, Circuits, Devices and Systems, Computing and Processing, Engineering Profession, General Topics for Engineers, Power, Energy and Industry Applications, Robotics and Control Systems, Signal Processing and Analysis, Transportation
Yıl :
2020
Countercyclical monetary policy for overcoming COVID 19 induced recession by introducing incentive based digital currency of the economy and as a result, aggregate expenditures of the economy will increase which will bring full employment in the economy and will eliminate COVID 19 induced recession. 19 induced recession will disappear. COVID-19 COVID 19 COVID 19 Induced Recession
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The objective of this this study is to examine how central bank (CB) can pursue incentive based counter cyclical monetary policy (MP) by introducing CB digital currency (CBDC) and by offering 10% purchase incentives or 10% discounts in each and every sector of the economy and as a result, aggregate expenditures of the economy will increase which will bring full employment in the economy and will eliminate COVID 19 induced recession. The study is based purely on theoretical general macroeconomic equilibrium model. The findings show that the incentive based expansionary MP will increase consumption expenditure, investment spending, government spending and net exports and as a result, aggregate expenditure line will shift up and equilibrium income and employment will increase and unemployment rate will fall and COVID 19 induced recession will disappear. Inflation rate will also fall because all the sellers in the economy will offer 10% purchase discounts and CBDC will be issued with such 10% purchase incentives. Indeed 10% discounts in all the prices of goods and services will automatically suppress inflation rate. Simultaneous decrease in unemployment rate and inflation rate will decrease misery index or discomfort index and economic performance will improve.
DOI : 10.1109/icdabi51230.2020.9325643
Anahtar Kelimeler : Online banking, Mathematical model, Government, Investment, COVID-19, Currencies, Business, diseases, economic cycles, electronic money, inflation (monetary), investment, macroeconomics, pricing, unemployment, countercyclical monetary policy, COVID 19, recession, central bank, cyclical monetary policy, CB digital currency, CBDC, purchase incentives, economy, aggregate expenditures, employment, theoretical general macroeconomic equilibrium model, expansionary MP, consumption expenditure, investment spending, government spending, aggregate expenditure line, unemployment rate, inflation rate, purchase discounts, Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), Purchase incentives, COVID 19 Induced Recession, Full Employment, Incentive based Counter Cyclical Monetary Policy, Economic Performance
Sınıflandırma :
27
Drivers of Disparity: How Policy Responses to COVID-19 Can Increase Inequalities
Rapor

Rapor
Kaynak :
JSTOR
Yazar(lar) :
Mma Amara Ekeruche
Yıl :
2020
Drivers of Disparity: How Policy Responses to COVID-19 Can Increase Inequalities Countries across the world have deployed macroeconomic policies to address the negative economic implications of the COVID- 19 pandemic and subsequent lockdown specific groups, with the aim of resetting policies to achieve more inclusive outcomes that will support economic growth and development in the post- COVID
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Countries across the world have deployed macroeconomic policies to address the negative economic implications of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdown measures. However, these policies can have different outcomes for various segments of the population. This policy briefing assesses the channels through which macroeconomic policy responses in Nigeria and Uganda negatively affect or exclude specific groups, with the aim of resetting policies to achieve more inclusive outcomes that will support economic growth and development in the post-COVID future. It finds that the urban poor and the informal sector are being excluded as a result of the poor coverage of cash
Yayın Tarihi: 2020-12-17
Sınıflandırma :
28
Seafood supply and demand disruptions: The Covid-19 pandemic and shrimp
Dergi Makalesi

Dergi Makalesi
Kaynak :
Taylor and Francis
Dergi:
Aquaculture Economics & Management
Yayıncı:
Informa UK Limited
Yazar(lar) :
Andrew Schmitz , Ly Nguyen
Yıl :
2022
Seafood supply and demand disruptions: The Covid-19 pandemic and shrimp classical welfare economics and apply it empirically to both importers and exporters of shrimp, the most traded seafood, to determine the effects of the Covid - 19 pandemic on shrimp produced and consumed in the U.S. and globally. - 19 pandemic. Covid-19
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We develop a theoretical trade model based on classical welfare economics and apply it empirically to both importers and exporters of shrimp, the most traded seafood, to determine the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on shrimp produced and consumed in the U.S. and globally. We consider two time periods and compare these to the base period before the pandemic. Period 1 (March–June 2020): there is a net economic loss globally of $194 million due to lockdowns. Period 2 (July 2020–June 2021): there is a net welfare gain globally of $885 million due to increased shrimp demand. Overall, the global net economic gain was $692 million. For the United States alone, shrimp consumers gained $470 million while shrimp producers gained $24 million, which is relatively consistent with the net quasi-consumer gain of $475 million due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
DOI : 10.1080/13657305.2022.2038719
Anahtar Kelimeler : Covid-19, excess demand, excess supply, price, welfare effects, F10, Q22, Q27
ISSN: 1365-7305
Sayfa: 1-25
Sınıflandırma :
29
Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures
Dergi Makalesi

Dergi Makalesi
Open Access
Kaynak :
Springer Nature
Dergi:
Nature Human Behaviour
Yayıncı:
Springer Nature
Yazar(lar) :
Dabo Guan , Daoping Wang , Stephane Hallegatte , Steven J. Davis , Jingwen Huo , Shuping Li , Yangchun Bai , Tianyang Lei , Qianyu Xue , Du2019Maris Coffman , Danyang Cheng , Peipei Chen , Xi Liang , Bing Xu , Xiaosheng Lu , Shouyang Wang , Klaus Hubacek , Peng Gong
Konu :
Economics, Environmental social sciences
Yıl :
2020
Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures Countries have sought to stop the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 ( COVID- 19) by severely restricting travel and in-person commercial activities. Regardless of the strategy, the complexity of global supply chains will magnify losses beyond the direct effects of COVID- 19. Guan et al. analyse the impacts of COVID- 19 restrictions on global supply chains.
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Countries have sought to stop the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by severely restricting travel and in-person commercial activities. Here, we analyse the supply-chain effects of a set of idealized lockdown scenarios, using the latest global trade modelling framework. We find that supply-chain losses that are related to initial COVID-19 lockdowns are largely dependent on the number of countries imposing restrictions and that losses are more sensitive to the duration of a lockdown than its strictness. However, a longer containment that can eradicate the disease imposes a smaller loss than shorter ones. Earlier, stricter and shorter lockdowns can minimize overall losses. A ‘go-slow’ approach to lifting restrictions may reduce overall damages if it avoids the need for further lockdowns. Regardless of the strategy, the complexity of global supply chains will magnify losses beyond the direct effects of COVID-19. Thus, pandemic control is a public good that requires collective efforts and support to lower-capacity countries. Guan et al. analyse the impacts of COVID-19 restrictions on global supply chains. Earlier, stricter and shorter lockdowns can minimize overall losses. A ‘go-slow’ approach to lifting restrictions may reduce overall damages if it avoids the need for further lockdowns.
DOI : 10.1038/s41562-020-0896-8
ISSN: 2397-3374
Cilt: 4
Sayı: 6
Sayfa: 577-587
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